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  • Quant Mashup
    Predictive Information of Options Volume in Equity Markets [Relative Value Arbitrage]
    A lot of research in options literature has been devoted to the volatility risk premia and developing advanced pricing models. Much less attention has been given to volume. In this post, I¡¯ll discuss some aspects of options volume. Can Options Volume Predict Market Returns? Most of the research in(...)
    - 1 month ago, 19 Aug 2025, 10:12pm -
    Cross-Sectional Alpha Factors in Crypto: 2+ Sharpe Ratio Without Overfitting [Unexpected Correlations]
    In the early ¡¯90s, the quant forefathers (Fama and French) introduced their now-canonical factor models: first three, then five, and eventually seven, explaining much of the variation in US equity returns. Today, these models are used to understand what easy-to-replicate risk factors managers are(...)
    - 1 month ago, 16 Aug 2025, 11:39pm -
    Trading Signals in High Definition [Robot Wealth]
    We¡¯ve all used on/off type trading signals at some point. But you can nearly always extract more insight with a simple adjustment that focuses on using data efficiently. Let me show you how using a crypto trend example. The problem with binary signals You¡¯ve seen them everywhere. ¡°If price is(...)
    - 1 month ago, 16 Aug 2025, 11:39pm -
    Python Tooling in 2025 [OS Quant]
    Today, Python¡¯s ecosystem offers an abundance of tooling to support every aspect of the development workflow. From dependency management to static analysis, from linting to environment setup, there are more options than ever. This article presents a modern, opinionated toolchain for Python(...)
    - 1 month ago, 16 Aug 2025, 11:39pm -
    Research Review?| 15 August 2025 |?Forecasting [Capital Spectator]
    Partisan Bias in Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts Benjamin S. Kay (Federal Reserve), et al. June 2025 Using a novel dataset linking professional forecasters in the Wall Street Journal Economic Forecasting Survey to their political affiliations, we document a partisan bias in GDP growth(...)
    - 1 month ago, 16 Aug 2025, 11:38pm -
    Systematic equity allocation across countries for dollar-based investors [Macrosynergy]
    This post demonstrates that country allocation with macroeconomic factors can materially enhance the returns on international equity portfolios in dollar terms. We identify a range of economic developments that, according to standard theory and in conjunction with market inattention, should predict(...)
    - 1 month ago, 16 Aug 2025, 11:38pm -
    Retrospective Simulation in Trading: Testing Strategies Beyond Realized Price Paths [Quant Insti]
    This blog introduces retrospective simulation, inspired by Taleb¡¯s "Fooled by Randomness," to simulate 1,000 alternate historical price paths using a non-parametric Brownian bridge method. Using SENSEX data (2000¨C2020) as in-sample data, the author optimises an EMA crossover strategy(...)
    - 1 month ago, 13 Aug 2025, 01:52am -
    Robeco's One-Legged Vol Factor [Falkenblog]
    Two months ago, Robeco¡¯s Amar Soehbag, Guido Baltussen, and Pim van Vliet posted a new empirical paper, Factoring in the Low-Volatility Factor. I consider Pim a good friend, and he is one of the initial low-vol portfolio managers, as he started his conservative fund at Robeco around 2006 (the(...)
    - 1 month ago, 13 Aug 2025, 01:52am -
    Understanding "why" beats statistical significance [Robot Wealth]
    Do you find yourself obsessing over p-values and t-stats when evaluating trading ideas? I get it. If you come from an academic or scientific background, statistical significance feels like the gold standard for determining whether something is ¡°real¡± or just random noise. And in many fields,(...)
    - 1 month ago, 13 Aug 2025, 01:52am -
    Weekly Research Recap [Quant Seeker]
    Is Social Media Information Noise or Fundamentals? Evidence from the Crude Oil Market (Ma, Tourani-Rad, Xu, and Zhou) Social media sentiment from Thomson Reuters MarketPsych Indices predicts crude oil returns, with a one-standard-deviation rise implying a next-day gain of roughly 21 bps. Positive(...)
    - 1 month ago, 13 Aug 2025, 01:51am -
    The Impact of Market Regimes on Stop Loss Performance [Relative Value Arbitrage]
    Stop loss is a risk management technique. It has been advocated as a way to control portfolio risk, but how effective is it? In this post, I will discuss certain aspects of stop loss. When Are Stop Losses Effective? A stop loss serves as a risk management tool, helping investors limit potential(...)
    - 1 month ago, 13 Aug 2025, 01:51am -
    New Contributor: GLD Put-Write Strategy [Deltaray]
    Exploring alternative assets like GLD ETF options enhances portfolio diversification by tapping into distinct volatility profiles and correlation patterns, especially beneficial during volatile market environments. In this post, we examine a simple, yet effective Put-Write strategy applied to GLD(...)
    - 1 month ago, 10 Aug 2025, 09:23pm -
    Options: Iron Butterfly [Trading the Breaking]
    In the previous article, we deconstructed the Iron Condor, a robust strategy for harvesting the variance risk premium in markets characterized by range-bound behavior. The Condor, with its constituent out-of-the-money credit spreads, offers a wide plateau of profitability, making it a forgiving(...)
    - 1 month ago, 10 Aug 2025, 09:22pm -
    Overnight Returns: Risk or Conspiracy? [Falkenblog]
    TL;DR Virtually all of crypto returns come outside of NYSE trading hours, more so for coins pulled from the top 100, more so than for ETH & BTC Overnight returns dominate the WallStreetBets meme stock pumps of 2021 This pattern could be a signature of a conspiratorial pump or the nature of risky(...)
    - 1 month ago, 10 Aug 2025, 09:22pm -
    Step-by-Step Python Guide for Regime-Specific Trading Using HMM and Random Forest [Quant Insti]
    Most trading strategies fail because they assume the market behaves the same all the time. But real markets shift between calm and chaotic, and strategies must adapt accordingly. This project builds a Python-based adaptive trading strategy that: Detects current market regime using a Hidden Markov(...)
    - 1 month ago, 10 Aug 2025, 09:22pm -
    Quantamental Catch-Up [Anton Vorobets]
    Many of you have undoubtedly enjoyed the summer holidays, so you might have missed out on the first five lectures of the Applied Quantitative Investment Management course. So far, we have been through the first four chapters of the Portfolio Construction and Risk Management book, reaching a point(...)
    - 1 month ago, 5 Aug 2025, 06:56pm -
    Cultural Calendars and the Gold Drift: Are Holidays Moving GLD ETF? [Quantpedia]
    Financial markets exhibit persistent calendar anomalies, which often defy the efficient©\market hypothesis by generating predictable return patterns tied to institutional or cultural events. In this paper, we document a novel, globally pervasive drift in gold prices surrounding major(...)
    - 1 month ago, 5 Aug 2025, 06:55pm -
    Weekly Research Recap [Quant Seeker]
    Commodities and Conundrums: Decoding Behavioural Finance in Market Dynamics (Till) Investors often underestimate the influence of psychological biases in trading, particularly in commodity markets. This paper examines real-world cases, such as the collapse of MF Global, where overconfidence, loss(...)
    - 1 month ago, 5 Aug 2025, 06:55pm -
    The Limits of Out-of-Sample Testing [Relative Value Arbitrage]
    In trading system design, out-of-sample (OOS) testing is a critical step to assess robustness. It is a necessary step, but not sufficient. In this post, I¡¯ll explore some issues with OOS testing. How Well Overfitted Trading Systems Perform Out-of-Sample? In-sample overfitting is a serious problem(...)
    - 1 month ago, 5 Aug 2025, 06:55pm -
    We interrupt this service for an important message [Klement on Investing]
    Hi everyone Usually, I don¡¯t comment too much on current affairs on this substack. Still, Trump firing the Head of the BLS, Erika McEntarfer, because he didn¡¯t like the labour market data, is extremely dangerous for investors everywhere. If you have investments in the US, you should be highly(...)
    - 1 month ago, 3 Aug 2025, 07:15pm -
    A Quant's Guide to Covariance Matrix Estimation [OS Quant]
    In this article, we explore three techniques to improve covariance matrix estimation: evaluating estimates independently of backtests, decoupling variance and correlation, and applying shrinkage for more robust outputs. Author Adrian Letchford Published 2 August 2025 Length 12 minutes Like what you(...)
    - 1 month ago, 3 Aug 2025, 07:15pm -
    Overnight Crypto Returns [Falkenblog]
    On Monday, I examined the flaw in capturing the overnight equity return anomaly. The basic issue was that the anomaly shrank considerably after the 2008 bear market, and given that one has to turn over the entire portfolio twice a day, the minuscule transaction costs eliminate any alpha. The guys(...)
    - 1 month ago, 3 Aug 2025, 07:14pm -
    A Different Way of Looking at Returns [Mark Best]
    It would be nice if it were possible to trade a moving average cross. The problem with this is always that the data lags. It¡¯s not possible to trade the current value of a moving average since it requires trading prices in the past. The advantage to doing so is that, due to the smoothing,(...)
    - 1 month ago, 3 Aug 2025, 07:14pm -
    100 Papers an Hour: 10x'ing Your Strategy Research Speed With AI [Paper to Profit]
    As much as LLMs and AI seem to be writing our code, creating our art, and potentially replacing (or at least supplementing) our own artistic souls, they also still excel at pretty mundane tasks. When applied correctly, they can chew through hundreds of research papers at a time and give you deeper(...)
    - 2 months ago, 1 Aug 2025, 03:52am -
    Weekly Research Recap [Quant Seeker]
    The ¡°Actual Retail Price¡± of Equity Trades (Schwarz, Barber, Huang, Jorion, and Odean) Contrary to conventional wisdom, payment for order flow (PFOF) isn¡¯t systematically linked to worse execution. This paper finds large cost differences across brokers for identical orders, not explained by(...)
    - 2 months ago, 1 Aug 2025, 03:51am -
    First trading day of the month has generally been strong¡­except August [Quantifiable Edges]
    I¡¯ve shown the chart below several times over the years. It breaks down by month the performance of the first trading day of the month. July has long had the strongest Day 1. But August is also notable for it¡¯s lack of Day 1 performance. As you can see it is the only month with a negative Day 1(...)
    - 2 months ago, 1 Aug 2025, 03:51am -
    Options: Iron Condor Strategy [Trading the Breaking]
    The iron condor¡¯s appeal is statistically seductive: a high-probability, defined-risk structure promising steady income from time decay and volatility erosion. Yet beneath its deceptively flat payoff profile lies a quantitatively intricate reality¡ªone where theoretical win rates often mask a(...)
    - 2 months ago, 29 Jul 2025, 12:11am -
    The Equity Overnight Anomaly ETFs [Falkenblog]
    TL;DR The overnight return anomaly became much less anomalous around 2009 The failed ETFs designed to capture it suffered from horrible timing, but also transaction costs Transaction costs are much greater than fees, and also greater than fees + (ask-bid)/2 The overnight equity anomaly is that most(...)
    - 2 months ago, 29 Jul 2025, 12:11am -
    From Defense to Offense: A Tactical Model for All Seasons [Quantitativo]
    ¡°Basketball is a game of adjustments.¡± Bob Knight. Bob Knight was the last coach to lead an NCAA team to a perfect season: 32 wins, zero losses. That record still stands nearly half a century later. His secret? He was a masterful tactician. Obsessed with preparation, relentless on fundamentals,(...)
    - 2 months ago, 29 Jul 2025, 12:11am -
    How to Identify Ponzi Funds? [Quantpedia]
    Can we spot a Ponzi scheme before it collapses? That question haunts regulators, investors, and journalists alike. But what if some modern investment funds operate on dynamics that, while not technically illegal, closely resemble Ponzi-like behavior? A new paper by Philippe van der Beck,(...)
    - 2 months ago, 29 Jul 2025, 12:10am -
    The Risks of Passive Investing Dominance [Alpha Architect]
    Fueled by the persistent failure of active management (as evidenced, for example, by the annual SPIVA scorecards), passive investing now commands the majority of assets under management. This structural shift is not without consequence. Chris Brightman and Campbell Harvey¡¯s May 2025 paper(...)
    - 2 months ago, 29 Jul 2025, 12:10am -
    Sentiment as Signal: Forecasting with Alternative Data and Generative AI [Relative Value Arbitrage]
    Quantitative trading based on market sentiment is a less developed area compared to traditional approaches. With the explosion of social media, advances in computing resources, and AI technology, sentiment-based trading is making progress. In this post, I will explore some aspects of sentiment(...)
    - 2 months ago, 29 Jul 2025, 12:09am -
    Why the Last Few Minutes of Trading Might Matter More Than You Think [Alpha Architect]
    This paper reveals a striking pattern in U.S. stock markets: the prices of individual stocks often reverse direction at the very end of the trading day. Using high-frequency data, the authors find that the last few minutes¡ªparticularly the closing auction¡ªare dominated by large institutional(...)
    - 2 months ago, 22 Jul 2025, 06:10pm -
    Weekly Research Recap [Quant Seeker]
    News Sentiment and Commodity Futures Investing (Yeguang, El-Jahel, and Vu) While momentum and carry strategies are well-known in commodities, this paper shows that weekly news sentiment from financial media also predicts returns. Using Refinitiv¡¯s MarketPsych indices, the authors construct(...)
    - 2 months ago, 22 Jul 2025, 06:09pm -
    Carlson's "Defense First" [Allocate Smartly]
    This is a test of Thomas Carlson¡¯s ¡°Defense First¡± strategy from his paper Defense First: A Multi-Asset Tactical Model for Adaptive Downside Protection. Strategy results from 1971 follow. Results are net of transaction costs ¨C see backtest assumptions. Learn about what we do and follow 90+(...)
    - 2 months ago, 20 Jul 2025, 10:55pm -
    When your strategy works, is it just dumb luck? How to stack the odds in your favour [Robot Wealth]
    Recently, we had an excellent question on the Trade Like a Quant Discord server: ¡°How do you know if your strategy is working out of coincidence rather than actual edge? The strategy might work over a long period just because of blind luck.¡± Damn good question. It hits right in the insecurity(...)
    - 2 months ago, 20 Jul 2025, 10:54pm -
    The Memorization Problem: Can We Trust LLMs¡¯ Forecasts? [Quantpedia]
    Everyone is excited about the potential of large language models (LLMs) to assist with forecasting, research, and countless day-to-day tasks. However, as their use expands into sensitive areas like financial prediction, serious concerns are emerging¡ªparticularly around memory leaks. In the recent(...)
    - 2 months ago, 20 Jul 2025, 10:54pm -
    Behavioral Biases and Retail Options Trading [Relative Value Arbitrage]
    Why Do Investors Lose Money? Behavioral finance is the study of how financial behavior affects economic decisions and market outcomes, and how those decisions and outcomes are affected by psychological, social, and cultural factors. Behavioral finance research has shown that people do not always(...)
    - 2 months ago, 20 Jul 2025, 10:54pm -
    Do Smart Machines Make Smarter Trades? [Alpha Architect]
    Can machine learning models help us exploit stock market anomalies more effectively? This paper says yes¡ªbut with a few important caveats. By applying gradient boosting algorithms to a wide array of established anomalies (like value, momentum, and quality), the authors show that machine learning(...)
    - 2 months ago, 20 Jul 2025, 10:54pm -
    The Unintended Consequences of Rebalancing [Quantitativo]
    ¡°I picked up one or two pieces and examined them attentively... I then collected four or five pieces and went to Mr. Scott... I said, ¡®I believe this is gold.¡¯¡± James W. Marshall. He found gold¡­ and died broke. James W. Marshall unintentionally sparked one of the greatest migrations in(...)
    - 2 months ago, 15 Jul 2025, 07:14pm -
    Weekly Research Recap [Quant Seeker]
    In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Sharpe Ratios for Linear Predictive Models (Jacquier, Muhle-Karbe, and Mulligan) Combining many weak signals can raise a model¡¯s in-sample Sharpe ratio, but this paper shows it often backfires out of sample due to overfitting. Even if the combined model looks better in(...)
    - 2 months ago, 15 Jul 2025, 07:14pm -
    How Fragile is Liquidity Across Asset Classes? [Quantpedia]
    The paper ¡°Through Stormy Seas: How Fragile is Liquidity Across Asset Classes?¡± is a very interesting examination of how liquidity properties have evolved over the past decade. Although the average bid¨Cask spread has declined, the kurtosis and skewness of the spread distribution have(...)
    - 2 months ago, 15 Jul 2025, 07:13pm -
    The Rise of 0DTE Options: Cause for Concern or Business as Usual? [Relative Value Arbitrage]
    Zero DTE (Days to Expiration) options are contracts that expire on the same day they are traded. They were introduced in 2022 and have been gaining popularity. In this post, I discuss their impact on the market and how options traders use them. Impact of Zero DTE Options on the Market Zero DTE(...)
    - 2 months ago, 15 Jul 2025, 07:13pm -
    The 10 Most Popular TAA Strategies Ranked [Allocate Smartly]
    We¡¯re in a unique position to analyze the behavior of Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) investors. We track 90+ TAA strategies. Members combine these strategies into what we call ¡°Model Portfolios¡±. By analyzing how members form these Model Portfolios, we can understand the choices that TAA(...)
    - 2 months ago, 14 Jul 2025, 04:37am -
    Testing Strategies [Trading the Breaking]
    Introduction. Risks and method limitations. Circular-shift (lag-invariant) permutation test. Random sign-flip (direction-neutral) test. Stationary bootstrap of returns. White's reality check and Hansen's superior predictive ability. Jittered-entry (temporal perturbation) test. Parameter(...)
    - 2 months ago, 14 Jul 2025, 04:37am -
    Research Review?| 11 July 2025 | Risk Factors [Capital Spectator]
    Factoring in the Low-Volatility Factor Amar Soebhag (Erasmus University Rotterdam), et al. June 2025 Low-volatility stocks have historically delivered higher risk-adjusted returns than their high-volatility peers. Despite extensive evidence and widespread adoption in the investment industry, the(...)
    - 2 months ago, 14 Jul 2025, 04:36am -
    Volatility is a Reliable and Convenient Proxy for Downside Risk [Alpha Architect]
    Javier Estrada, author of the June 2025 study ¡°Volatility: A Dead Ringer for Downside Risk¡± tackled a longstanding debate in finance: Is volatility (the standard deviation of returns) a good measure of the risk that investors actually care about? While volatility is the most widely used risk(...)
    - 2 months ago, 14 Jul 2025, 04:36am -
    The Lumber-Gold Strategy [Allocate Smartly]
    The Lumber-Gold Strategy was first published a decade ago, won the 2015 NAAIM Wagner Award, and continues to be cited today. The strategy trades based on the relative strength of lumber as a leading economic indicator, versus gold. How has the strategy performed since publication? Strategy results(...)
    - 2 months ago, 8 Jul 2025, 05:59pm -
    Backtesting [Trading the Breaking]
    Introduction You know, after more than a decade in this business, I've come to think of backtesting as the ultimate paradox of our profession. It's like being handed the top one lie detector in the world, only to discover it's been calibrated exclusively on your own personal brand of(...)
    - 2 months ago, 8 Jul 2025, 05:58pm -
    Weekly Research Recap [Quant Seeker]
    Hi there. It¡¯s time for this week¡¯s recap of top investing research, with direct links to the original sources for easy access. As mentioned last week, there won¡¯t be a Thursday post this week as I¡¯m away on holiday. Normal posting resumes next week. Commodities Political Uncertainty and(...)
    - 2 months ago, 8 Jul 2025, 05:58pm -
    Jeff paid no attention to Larry¡¯s natural anger and wonder. ¡°Well,¡± concluded Mr. Everdail, ¡°here are the emeralds, minus the chain, which can easily be duplicated. And you know who¡¯s who, and why the hangar seemed to be haunted, and all about the gum. Is there anything you don¡¯t understand?¡ªbefore Larry starts taking flying instructions from Jeff and you others join my wife and I for a cruise to Maine where I will leave Mrs. Everdail.¡± 119 Naturally, when he pulled back on the stick and it did not yield, Jeff shouted through the speaking tube, ¡°Let go!¡± for he thought Larry had lost his head and was fighting his control. Surprised, Larry did as he asked. The Young Pretender, during this time, had been making a hard run for his life, beset and hunted on all sides for the thirty thousand pounds set upon his head. During the whole five months of his adventurous wanderings and hidings, nothing could induce a single Highlander to betray him, notwithstanding the temptation of the thirty thousand pounds. The most familiar story is his escape from South Uist, where he had been tracked and surrounded. At this moment Miss Flora Macdonald, a near relative of Macdonald of Clanranald, with whom she was on a visit, stepped forward to rescue him. She procured a pass from Hugh Macdonald, her stepfather, who commanded part of the troops now searching the island, for herself, her maid, Betty Burke, and her servant, Neil Mac Eachan. She, moreover, induced Captain Macdonald to recommend the maid, Betty Burke¡ªwhich Betty Burke was to be Charles in disguise¡ªto his wife in Skye as very clever at spinning. At the moment that all was ready, General Campbell, as if suspecting something, came with a company of soldiers, and examined Clanranald's house. The prince, in his female attire, however, was concealed in a farm-house, and the next morning he and his deliverer embarked in a boat with six rowers and the servant Neil. In passing the point of Vaternish, in Skye, they ran a near chance of being all killed, for the militia rushed out and fired upon them. Luckily the tide was out, so that they were at a tolerable distance, were neither hurt, nor could be very quickly pursued. The boatmen pulled stoutly, and landed them safely at Mougstot, the seat of Sir Alexander Macdonald. Sir Alexander was on the mainland in Cumberland's army; but the young heroine had the address to induce his wife, Lady Margaret Macdonald, to receive him; and as the house was full of soldiers, she sent him to her factor and kinsman, Macdonald of Kingsburgh, in the interior of the island, who brought him to a place of safety. At last, on the 20th of September, he got on board the French vessel. Lochiel and Cluny, and about a hundred other refugees, sailed with him, and they landed at the little port of Roscoff, near Morlaix, in Finist¨¨re, on the 29th of September, whence Charles hastened to Paris, was received in a very friendly manner by Louis XV., and by the Parisians, when he appeared at the opera, with rapturous acclamations. However, he had come to get some comprehension of the lay of the ground and the movements of the trains by this time, and by careful watching succeeded in gathering in his boys, one after another, until he had them all but little Pete Skidmore. The opinion grew among them that Pete had unwisely tried to keep up with the bigger boys, who had jumped across the track in front of a locomotive, and had been caught and crushed beneath the wheels. He had been seen up to a certain time, and then those who were last with him had been so busy getting out of the way that they had forgotten to look for him. Si calmed Shorty down enough to get him to forget the trainmen for awhile and take charge of the squad while he went to look for Pete. He had become so bewildered that he could not tell the direction whence they had come, or where the tragedy was likely to have happened. The farther he went in attempting to penetrate the maze of moving trains, the more hopeless the quest seemed. Finally he went over to the engineer of a locomotive that was standing still and inquired if he had heard of any accident to a boy soldier during the day. "The men began it themselves," said a second voice. "They heard Yankees moving over there, and commenced shooting at them." "Sure," Dodd said, and shrugged, nearly losing his balance. He recovered, and went on as if nothing at all had happened. "They let you work for them," he said. "And what do you get out of it? Food and shelter and security, I guess. But how would you like to work for yourself instead?" TO: James Oliver Gogarty Chapter 19 They hardly ever clinched¡ªon the other hand, there was much plunging and rushing. Reuben brought down Realf three times and Realf brought down Reuben once. It was noticeable that if the younger man fell more easily he also picked himself up more quickly. Between the rounds they leaned exhausted against the wall, Pete prowling about between them, longing to take his father on his knee, but still resolved to see fair play. "I wish Caro or Jemmy cud meet someone like her. I d?an't think as Pete minds." He then put on the black cap and slowly commenced the sentence. The life that had seemed to have departed from the still and contracted form, rallied for a moment¡ªthe eyes unclosed and fixed on the appalled countenance of Skipwith; and, when the concluding invocation of mercy for the soul of the criminal fell tremulously from the lips of the judge, she, in a voice low but distinct, answered "Amen!" and then a slight tremor and a faint gasp released the soul of Edith. "Man is but dust, and a breath may blow him away. I was born, Lady de Boteler, but to die; and there is not a morning, since I have abided in this dungeon, but, as I have watched the first rays of light stream through yonder grating, I have thought, shall my eyes behold the departing day! and, as well as a sinner may do, I prepared for my end. But, lady, are the thousands but as one man?¡ªand think you that the spirit which has gone forth¡ª¡ª" "Why do you not answer, man?" continued Sir Robert, at the same time giving De Boteler a glance, intimating that he wished not to be interrupted. "I know how many the steward promised you, but I desire to know how much you received." HoME2017Ò»¼¶aÃâ·Ñ¹Û¿´ ENTER NUMBET 0017
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